We have a market for whether the first AGI will be an LLM: https://manifold.markets/No_ones_ghost/will-the-first-agi-be-a-large-langu

Kalshi has a market for when OpenAI will announce AGI: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/oaiagi

This is the market on the relationship between those probabilities.

This market resolves N/A if OpenAI's first AGI does not centrally involve LLMs or their successors (or earlier, if it's clear that large language models are a dead paradigm).

Note that the AGI does not have to be an LLM, as long as it centrally involves highly LLM-like systems (C):

(diagram source: https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/KJRBb43nDxk6mwLcR/ai-doom-from-an-llm-plateau-ist-perspective)

Resolutions:

N/A: Cutting-edge AI research has moved away from LLMs, and it doesn't look like it's coming back, OR OpenAI announces AGI and it's not centrally an LLM, OR Something happens that guarantees that OpenAI will never announce AGI (i.e. OpenAI shuts down).

YES: Market hasn't resolved N/A, AND OpenAI has announced that they have achieved AGI, AND it happens before Dec 31, 2027

NO: Market hasn't resolved N/A, AND OpenAI has announced that they have achieved AGI, AND it happens AFTER Dec 31, 2027

I will not trade in this market.

I reserve the right to significantly change this market for 48 hours after creation, if I notice any large mistakes.