IMO (International Math Olympiad) 2026 is currently planned to be hosted in Shanghai, China.

This market resolves yes if no official IMO event occurs, as hosted by the IMO organization, occurs after a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If the IMO is officially hosted in another country, this market resolves no. Concerns to whether an IMO event is official will be addressed separately.

Notably, if the IMO goes through but certain countries do not attend, this market will resolve no. If China does not invade Taiwan before IMO 2026, this market will resolve N/A.

As a precedent, IMO 1980 was cancelled due to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.