Will anyone quit Manifold for at least a week due to the drama around "Whales vs. Minnows"?
resolved May 9

They need to state publicly that this is the case on either "Whales vs. Minnows" or this market. Accounts that are less than one month old are not elegible for this.

Resolves YES if any account makes such a statement and then remains inactive (no trades, comments, or market creations) for the following seven UTC days. Resolves NO if there is no such statement in the week after "Whales vs. Minnows" closes, or all accounts that make such statements do in fact have activiity.

If someone was close to quitting for other reasons, and this is what tipped them over the edge, that also counts.

Isaac has confirmed in the comments that he's quitting. So this is open for the next seven UTC days, comments (after this current flurry), market creations, and bets (other than the bot mentioned in the comments) by Isaac will cause this to resolve NO. Otherwise resolves YES at close.

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@MayMeta I mean, that's quite the novelty purchase, but for it to resolve yes at this point you're going to need to produce another candidate ;)

@Imuli I'm just claiming there's a .1% chance that somebody gonna post another candidate last second ๐Ÿ‘€

predicted YES

@Imuli there's virtually no reason to not bet YES on a random market when it falls down to 0.0% (below 0.05%). By spending 1 mana you're getting a ludicrous number of YES shares.

It seems like we don't have any candidates left, so I think this can resolve no?

predicted NO

@Imuli It's been half an hour and some people are buying YES but no one is putting up candidates. Obviously I'm a bit biased, but I think it can resolve NO, especially since the updated criteria have been met.

@TobyBW Yeah, I meant to wait exactly 30 minutes, but I got distracted.

predicted NO

Oops. I forgot about this market. Should have liquidated.

@JohnSmithb9be Looks like it worked out for you :)

predicted YES

Does this count?

@TobyBW "comments (after this current flurry)... by Isaac will cause this to resolve NO"
His comment certainly fits all these criteria.

@TobyBW Yup, that counts. Link?

@Imuli https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/how-many-total-traders-will-there-b#MKMmF8Z1IoNxAyU3hbmL. He's made a few comments in a few different markets in the last few minutes.

@TobyBW Yeah, I see.

I mean I specifically said below that I'd continue to be around for resolving my markets and responding to questions. :)

- Dawi shows negative cash balance changes..
- Damp_tostr joined in April.
- Birger shows negative cash balance changes.
- C. P shows negative cash balance changes.

Isaac certainly fulfilled the spirit of the market, but not the letter. He didn't announce in the market that he was leaving, and also had a bot or something making trades here.

I'm not seeing others at the moment, but it also hasn't been a week since WvM closed yet.

@Imuli Actually, Isaac was active as IsaacKing2 anyway, so he definitely doesn't count.

Unless someone points to something specific, I'm inclined to resolve this negative tomorrow.

@Imuli I'm quitting Manifold in a general sense, but I'm going to continue to manage my existing markets until they're all resolved, and I have a bot continuing my betting streak just in case I ever change my mind. Up to you how you want to count that.

@IsaacKing I'm sorry to see you go, and I hope you do change your mind! In any case I hope everything's going well for you.

@IsaacKing That's a very sensible and responsible way to quit. :) I've thought I'd do approximately the same (modulo the betting bot).

I am inclined to accept this comment as sufficiently within the rules of the market - and ignore the betting bot. So I guess this will resolve to whether Isaac doesn't comment for the next seven UTC days.

@IsaacKing The big news is that you can edit comments!!! Itโ€™s been a day but itโ€™s the first time Iโ€™m seeing it.

@IsaacKing unblock me plz incase i gotta write in yo markets.

predicted YES


If I'm inactive after that market for the week, resolve this as YES. I've bought this market up to 98+

@firstuserhere It seems like you didn't succeed?

@Imuli ๐Ÿ‘€ yeahhh