
If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?
62
6.3kṀ66142050
81%
It will allow to predict in advance whether a given intelligence architecture will be sentient
64%
It will be solved by AI
63%
It will open a new seemingly unsolvable problem
60%
It will be shown that every intelligence is sentient to some extent
60%
The methods developed to solve the problem will be proven to be useful to approach other seemingly unsolvable problems (such as why does reality exist rather non-exist?)
59%
It will be shown that for any level of intelligence, a non-sentient intelligence can exist
50%
Retrospectively, the solution will look relatively trivial and such that it could have been found much earlier by much smaller efforts
49%
The process of understanding its solution by a median human will take less time than it takes for a median human to successfully complete undergrad 1-year calculus course
44%
The solution will be formally accepted, but the consensus will be that no one understands the “intuition behind it”
40%
It will be shown that the higher is the level of intelligence, the harder it is to construct a non-sentient intelligence
40%
The full set of all possible qualia will be derived from it
39%
It will be solved within the standard modern scientific framework and scientific method understanding
38%
It will require some paradigm shift in logic/epistemology/scientific method
37%
It will be shown that some sufficiently high level of intelligence requires sentience
22%
It will be formally and unambiguously proven that the problem is unsolvable
I will resolve the market according to my best judgement, but of course there must be scientific consensus that the problem is solved.
New options may be added later.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, will cephalopod research play a significant role in its solution?
22% chance
Will the hard problem of consciousness be solved by 2048?
33% chance
When will it be proved that consciousness is non-local?
When will a neuroscientist say that artificial consciousness has been invented?
Is Penrose's orchestrated objective reduction theory of consciousness true?
8% chance
Will there be a peer-reviewed, widely accepted scientific explanation of how consciousness emerges by 31/Dec/2033?
26% chance
Will philosophy be solved before 2123?
13% chance