If the hard problem of consciousness is solved, what will be true of it?
62
6.3kṀ6614
2050
81%
It will allow to predict in advance whether a given intelligence architecture will be sentient
64%
It will be solved by AI
63%
It will open a new seemingly unsolvable problem
60%
It will be shown that every intelligence is sentient to some extent
60%
The methods developed to solve the problem will be proven to be useful to approach other seemingly unsolvable problems (such as why does reality exist rather non-exist?)
59%
It will be shown that for any level of intelligence, a non-sentient intelligence can exist
50%
Retrospectively, the solution will look relatively trivial and such that it could have been found much earlier by much smaller efforts
49%
The process of understanding its solution by a median human will take less time than it takes for a median human to successfully complete undergrad 1-year calculus course
44%
The solution will be formally accepted, but the consensus will be that no one understands the “intuition behind it”
40%
It will be shown that the higher is the level of intelligence, the harder it is to construct a non-sentient intelligence
40%
The full set of all possible qualia will be derived from it
39%
It will be solved within the standard modern scientific framework and scientific method understanding
38%
It will require some paradigm shift in logic/epistemology/scientific method
37%
It will be shown that some sufficiently high level of intelligence requires sentience
22%
It will be formally and unambiguously proven that the problem is unsolvable

I will resolve the market according to my best judgement, but of course there must be scientific consensus that the problem is solved.

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