Will chess be solved by 2040?
Will chess be solved by 2040?
198
1.8kṀ1.6m2040
23%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game (Ultra-weak)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess
(No 50-move rule, repetition is a draw.)
To bet on what the outcome will be, see:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will we have AI that can explain chess moves logic in human language by 2030?
94% chance
Will chess be solved by 2100?
43% chance
Will atomic chess be solved by 2040?
37% chance
Which chess variants will be solved by 2040?
Will "You Resign Now Chess" be solved by 2040?
34% chance
Chess with queen-and-two-rook odds solved by 2035?
38% chance
Will Chess be solved before ASI is acheived
17% chance
Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?
22% chance
Will chess be played in the Olympics as an official event by the end of 2040?
14% chance
Chess with queen odds solved by 2040?
17% chance