Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?
22
84
Ṁ441Ṁ470
2040
21%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if, by 2040, there is a particular first move for white in a standard game of chess which we know to be optimal. That is, we must have a proof that the outcome of the game with perfect play after that move is the same (Win, lose, or draw) for white as before the move.
Feb 6, 1:13pm: Will an optimal first move for white be known by 2040? → Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will AI be able to generate correct images of a chess game in 2024?
46% chance
Will Alireza Firouzja be World Chess Champion by end of 2040?
29% chance
Does white win stalemate-wins chess with optimal play?
23% chance
Will any chess prodigy reach top 3 in the world in 2024?
40% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
46% chance
Will Fabiano Caruana become world chess champion by 2050?
25% chance
Will chess be solved by 2040?
10% chance
Will there be a woman World Chess Champion before 2060?
22% chance
Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
47% chance