Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

22

77

Ṁ441Ṁ470

2040

21%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Amount

Ṁ1

Ṁ10

Ṁ100

Payout if YES

Ṁ46 +369.8%

New probability

22% +1.4%

This market resolves YES if, by 2040, there is a particular first move for white in a standard game of chess which we know to be optimal. That is, we must have a proof that the outcome of the game with perfect play after that move is the same (Win, lose, or draw) for white as before the move.

Feb 6, 1:13pm: ~~Will an optimal first move for white be known by 2040?~~ → Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

Get Ṁ1,000 play money