This market resolves YES if, by 2040, there is a particular first move for white in a standard game of chess which we know to be optimal. That is, we must have a proof that the outcome of the game with perfect play after that move is the same (Win, lose, or draw) for white as before the move.
Feb 6, 1:13pm:
Will an optimal first move for white be known by 2040? → Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?