How much will I weigh at the end of 2024?
4
295Ṁ57Jan 1
7%
>220 lbs
20%
210-219 lbs
25%
200-209 lbs
23%
190-199 lbs
10%
180-189 lbs
7%
170-179 lbs
7%
<170 lbs
I want to lose weight to improve my health and self-esteem.
But (brutal honesty here) I really like food and quickly grow undisciplined with it. My current weight is ~195 pounds; my weight historically has bounced between ~200 lbs and ~220 lbs.
I have a cardio program I'm decent at sticking to, and a prescription for a GLP-1 agonist. (However, there's a GLP-1 agonist shortage right now and I cannot fill my prescription.)
I'll start posting biweekly status updates starting the Sunday after I create this market.
3/17/2024: ~193 lbs
4/7/2024: ~192 lbs
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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