The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.
Basic
151
Ṁ1.5mresolved Jun 9
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to YES if:
After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role,
the selected replacement has taken power, and
the individual selected identifies as female.
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm
Mar 29, 3:40am: Just an update on how this started in the first place in ACXD.
Date: 02/03/2022
14:45<Honourary>
Okay so, Skew has stated that he’s handing over the server.
He’s also said that [Redacted] isn’t going to continue.
Yet the replacement Monarch might deem to continue [Redacted] if she sees fit.
So [Redacted] isn’t necessarily dead.
14:47 <chuzz>
Have we prepared the hunger games so that a worthy successor may take the reins?
14:49 <TheSkeward>
true!
14:50 <Honourary>
I don’t actually know the gender of the new Monarch but someone should start a prediction market.
14:51 <TheSkeward>
set one up on manifold.markets
link it widely around the discord
I will be following it avidly
fortunes could be won or lost
So that's basically how this started and made me sign up and make a profile in the first place.
Jun 9, 5:16pm: I received a notification that the free choice market for the future administrator was resolved, as well as an email notifying me about nfd's bet. I quickly emailed TheSkeward to get confirmation, as I wanted to prevent front-running if an official announcement had been made. After TheSkeward confirmed for me that Zenbu had been picked and that furthermore she had accepted, I logged onto Manifold Markets and resolved the market.
I acknowledge that the original description says that it will resolved only after TheSkeward has stepped down and the replacement has taken power, but in hindsight unless there are exigent circumstances I decided that resolving early following the announcement was more honourable than waiting for an official change of command ceremony to be completed and enabling further market distorting front-running of the event to happen. If this premature action was honourable or dishonourable I leave to @Gurkenglas to decide.
On a personal note, this market was made on a whim, as a joke. I never expected it to be one of the largest markets on Manifold, and when I first made it, I thought only fellow members of the ACX Discord would participate. The stuff with Spindle, the large amounts of money injected into the market, the large swings, the derivative market by @Gurkenglas about me resolving Honourably or not, and the final flourish of getting mentioned by Scott Alexander in his Substack was to be honest, a bit of an emotional roller coaster.
I started this thinking all Prediction Markets are kind of a joke, and finished it with a much greater understanding after going down countless rabbit holes about what they were and how they are valuable to society. I never asked for this, I never expected the responsibility of resolving a 1.5 million M$ market.
This is been quite the learning and growing experience for me. Thanks for everyone who participated and congratulations to Zenbu!
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Dangit! I had most of my portfolio here, slightly more than half of all NO shares. I was hoping that this market would be turned into CFMM like all the others, in which case I would have recovered about half of the M$3000 I dropped into the pool by selling NO some months back as the NO pool was empty.
I wanted to say: thank you so much for creating this market, @Honourary! And especially for resolving it as honourarily as you could, and writing up your thought process afterwards. As of this point in time, your market is the single largest Manifold market by all-time trade volume. Maybe you didn't ask for that responsibility, but you sure handled it with aplomb!
This is one of the markets that makes me smile every time I see (or even just remember) it. There was never doubt that prediction markets could be used for Very Important Problems, but your market was a validation that even silly topics have huge potential to get folks interested in the game of predicting. It's the creation of, and bets on, and comments in markets like this one that make building Manifold such a fun, fulfilling experience~
@Honourary: Resolving early with the added explanation makes sense. I would have accepted "I got private confirmation." ;)
Suggestion for the future: Just closing the market is safer - it prevents changes to the market but doesn't lock in a resolution. Reopening is also possible.
@Milli Honest question, how would I have done that? There's no close market button or option as far as I can tell.
@Honourary I see that no one has answered yet, so just in case you still don't know, you can change a market's resolution date by clicking on it on top of your market. Changing the close date to right now/a past date would immediately lock it
@JoyVoid Thanks for the explanation! In hindsight that makes sense, just turn the timer back, but it wasn’t intuitive at the time. I appreciate your reply.
https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/will-adam-face-enough-social-conseq Cryptic indication that mayyybe a rugpull is coming.