Will Adam face enough social consequences for dishonorable resolution?

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resolved Mar 27

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YES

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https://manifold.markets/Adam/will-this-market-have-m10000-invest-c5cfee65e218 Manifold discord: ADAM: Let the chaos commence! ADAM: I've made the argument here that people are too trusting of market creators on manifold (...) jbeshir: The market creator wasn't that random, anyways, they had an associated Discord account with standing in other servers to flush the personal credibility of at least. :P ADAM: I'll be very surprised if I face any social consequences of this that I care about Gurkenglas: you know what this means Close date updated to 2022-03-27 7:25 pm Close date updated to 2022-04-07 11:59 pm

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putting in profits from other market, minus a conservative estimate of the 380 excess

cancelling current position; looks like I overdid it here and ended up with ~380 shares of excess "No" here

Adam has agreed to cancel out his YES position (directly above) and pay his winnings from the other market as penance (directly below) to show that I should resolve this YES.

$30 of virtual currency is a small gain, I expect social consequences to exceed that. Adam can also buy off the losers from the other market for $100 or so.

(in short, I was miscalibrated on the degree to which people I care about viewed "actions in the domain of Manifold Markets" as predictive of "actions in domains that matter")

if "wishes he could undo what he did" were the only metric, then I think it's definitely been met; I've received much more negative feedback from people I care about than I expected, enough so that the utility of "having made a point about/opened the discussion of bad-faith on Manifold" and "made some $M as a side-effect" are definitely outweighed by that social pressure.

Agreeing with skew, Adam has shown that he's a bit of a dick previously via other discord conversations. Although I didn't think he'd be enough to be actively malicious like he was here. It's definitely an important piece of information. On the other hand, with the Honorary discussion, I still trust Honorary to be honorable.

It was intended to be subjective. Enough that he wishes he could undo what he did should be sufficient.

Resolution criteria for "enough"?

@Honourary > I will be watching this closely. Should we assume that your markets are highly suspect and will likely also end in something like that? Are there already markets maintained by someone independent where one may be that Honourary will cheat?

I don't think he will, but I wish he would. I don't want to participate in markets created by people who will just resolve falsely for the lols. (Or to teach people a lesson. That's...a deeply weird way to interact with the community. Stop.)

though outcome YES would be great ideally Manifold would add tools that would turn > do not think any market on MM should be at 98% to be clearly untrue for more accounts. And BTW, it is transparently false and markets maintained by trusted accounts can reach this, see https://manifold.markets/Austin/100-bounty-will-someone-combine-the https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-any-country-invoke-article-5-b-3ab9ba67868d And in general, your estimate than 2% of people are nasty cheating assholes is influenced by fact that you are a nasty and boring troll.

(btw, I didn’t have any money on the market, so I’m not even biased)

@Adam So you’re saying your rationale for stealing everyone’s money is literally to undercut trust? You realize that trust is a good thing, and Manifold Markets is a more useful site when market creators *don’t* pull the rug? And that when you pull the rug, it legitimizes other people doing it? It’s like stealing someone’s wallet because you don’t think they’re keeping close enough eyes on it. Except, unlike in real life, when you tell them “haha, I stole all your money,” you can’t just give it back.

I will be watching this closely.

All the servers Adam's a regular in that I'm aware of already know he's kind of a shithead. When he brought it up in my server (in a non-public channel), there was this exchange: Adam: Does this action (acting in bad faith as the oracle of a play-money market) update your opinion of my trustworthiness significantly? Starke: Good job shitting in the sandbox I guess Me: no; I was already well-calibrated with regard to your trustworthiness

Someone I respect the opinion of has indicated that it negatively impacts their perception of my trustworthiness.

s/rugpull/whalebait :P

if "ushered in the end of the rugpull era" is what they carve on my tombstone I wouldn't be too mad.

I always had it in the back of my mind that big bets on one market is a big risk. Many in the leaderboard have made such bets. Probably explains (with survival bias in mind) how they got there. If one has bets spread across 50 markets with a 2% rugpull “tax” you are probably OK and half the time the RP might be in your favour. The problem is for whalebaiters. This might be the end of the whalebait era.

re @Conflux: I understand that "smart money" boycotting my markets is the natural price of my "newfound riches", yes. My intent here was not to make money, but to undercut trust. I do not think any market on MM should be at 98%. I think the reliance on an individual as an oracle (combined with the lack of contractual enforcability) makes it very bad at accurately estimating the probability of very likely or very unlikely events, for precisely the reason shown by my actions: you shouldn't trust the market creator unconditionally.

Sorry, reading it back my comment sounds mean. Still, I assume you realize this is the natural price of your newfound riches.

Selfish jerk. It’s not just about making fake dollars, a prediction market can be a valuable tool and resolving markets wrong really undercuts trust. Especially with such blatantly cynical motivation. I’m planning to boycott Adam’s markets in the future.

for what it's worth, the first person to respond to my queries of "do you trust me less" in my social circle said yes!

Monitor Adam’s feed, comment on any new market with a link to the rug pull?

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