This market resolves to YES if Sarah Wagenknecht is a member of a party other than her current party (Die Linke) by the end of 2023 . This market resolves to NO if she is only a member of "Die Linke" or if she is not a member of any party.
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According to ARD sources, Wagenknecht will announce the upcoming founding of a new party on Monday. "As recently as last week, the 54-year-old said in an interview with tagesschau.de that a possible party could be founded in 2024 at the earliest."
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/wagenknecht-parteigruendung-100.html
@MaxTroet Even if the new party does not formally exist yet, it makes no sense for her to stay in Linke anymore. They probably want her to leave at this point.
@marketwise Yes, it has been discussed within Die Linke for quite some time whether Wagenknecht should be excluded, especially in the last few weeks. My impression is that she has been nurturing the intention of founding her own party for a long time, waiting for the right moment. She has taken on a kind of parasitic role within Die Linke, by constantly pointing towards the party's supposed weaknesses and establishing herself as an in-house opposition, thus remaining the centre of attention through the resulting conflicts. Therefore, I believe that she will delay her exit from Die Linke as long as possible. It might be better for her to be thrown out. We'll see...
All signs indicate that Sarah Wagenknecht is in the process of founding a new party. Since her statements in this regard are still vague and rather reserved, I assume that the party will not be founded this year, but in time to run in the state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in September 2024, since a high level of support for a Wagenknecht party can be expected in these states.
