Will the International Seabed Authority issue a deep sea mining (exploitation) license before 2026?
Will the International Seabed Authority issue a deep sea mining (exploitation) license before 2026?
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The International Seabed Authority has issued "more than 30 exploration licenses, but no exploitation [licenses]." This market will resolve to yes if The International Seabed Authority issues an exploitation license before January 1st 2026, and it will resolve to no if The International Seabed Authority does not issue any exploitation licenses before January 1st 2026.
I probably won't be active here during 2026, so mods have full permission to resolve for me, and this market probably will not resolve unless a mod does so. The market is set to close on January 1st 2026.
Context:
The Metals Company has said it plans to apply for a deep-sea mining license in mid-2024.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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