Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the Black Sea Grain Initiative (or a formally rebranded multilateral agreement replacing it) is officially reactivated, signed, or implemented.

To resolve to YES, the agreement must meet the following criteria:

• It must be a formal multilateral agreement involving both Russia and Ukraine, alongside mediators such as US, EU, Türkiye and/or the United Nations.

• It must establish a mutually agreed-upon framework, maritime corridor, or joint mechanism ensuring the safe passage of agricultural exports (such as grain and fertilizers) through the Black Sea.

Unilateral corridors operated by Ukraine without formal Russian consent, or unilateral actions by Russia that do not constitute a mutual agreement, will not qualify for a YES resolution.

Resolution will be verified using official announcements from the United Nations, or major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg). If no such agreement is officially reactivated or implemented by the deadline, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

The Black Sea Grain Initiative was originally brokered by Türkiye and the United Nations in July 2022 to allow Ukrainian agricultural products to reach global markets amid the war. Russia withdrew from the agreement in July 2023. Since then, Ukraine has largely relied on a unilateral maritime shipping corridor hugging the western coast of the Black Sea near NATO territory.

In mid-2026, escalation and strikes on civilian cargo ships renewed global concerns over food security. While Türkiye and other international actors continue diplomatic efforts to establish a new safe transit corridor or secure a moratorium on strikes against merchant ships, Russian leadership has repeatedly pushed back. In September 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova explicitly rejected proposals to revive the 2022–2023 initiative framework, calling it "completely unacceptable and completely unrealistic". This market tracks whether diplomatic breakthroughs will overcome the current stalemate by the end of 2026.