Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any participant with a net worth below 1 million Mana wins the Masters League in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The net worth of participants will be determined based on their Mana holdings at the time of the league's conclusion.
Background:
The Masters League is a competitive event where participants vie for top positions, often influenced by their Mana holdings. Historically, individuals with higher net worths have dominated the league, leading to perceptions of an uneven playing field. In 2025, approximately 25 out of 32 participants have net worths below 1 million Mana, yet higher-net-worth individuals continue to secure victories.
Considerations:
The system is rigged for whales.
Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the determination of a participant's Mana holdings at the time of the league's conclusion:
The creator will use the data source deemed most accurate for determining Mana holdings.
The 1-day portfolio tracker will be used if it is considered more accurate than other available methods (e.g., the all-time portfolio tracker) at the time of resolution.
Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A participant's Mana holdings will be determined using the 1-day graph value.
This value will be based on their holdings at the minute they won the Masters League.
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@Quroe we will use whatever is more accurate. So yea 1 day is good if more accurate.
@HillaryClinton In the off chance it matters, is the Ṁ1M mana cutoff threshold counted post- or pre-award paid out from winning the league?
@Quroe Per the description: "Mana holdings at the time of the league's conclusion". I need to be consistent with that. It's whatever the 1 day graph value says at the minute they won.
For what it's worth, last season prizes were given out May 1st at 11:50am, but I do not see a bump in my Net worth graph or others around then. Do you know what time League ended last month? It seems like the modified the UI to always say 3:00am even though that's not true.
If it's not obvious, I would lean towards not including it in the very rare situation that this made a difference. I view them as winning and then getting the bonus immediately after they won in my head.
@HillaryClinton I was watching like a hawk, and I made this comment within maybe 10 minutes or so of the prize payout notification, but I can't seem to figure out how to view when I made that comment or when I got the league prize payout notification down to the minute. Hm...
Based on what I'm seeing, I think it did truly end when the UI said it did, but it didn't notify us with prizes or confirm it ended in real time until like 11:50am like you said.
We can always hope a Ṁ6,400 payout doesn't cross the winner over the threshold.
@Quroe It ends randomly after month end. See this question
https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-a-manifold-league-season-rando
At the end of the day though, its whatever the graph says when league ends. That's the only way to verify it. I can't do complicated math etc... The only thing I can do is take a measurement 1 minute before league ends if it makes a difference.