At end of 2025, resolves based on the probability (rounded to 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%) that Trump ever had any kind of sexual relations with Bill Clinton.
A broad but reasonable definition of “sexual relations” will be used.
My plan is to resolve by averaging probabilities given on a poll of legitimate Manifold users. I will conduct this poll when 2025 is over, assuming that the correct resolution still needs to be determined. I may resolve YES early if clear evidence emerges.
The poll will run in January and this question will remain open during the poll.
1,000Who is the person who said Trump didn’t do that? He’s deeply aligned with MAGA in every way.
In Bill’s dream, Trump was essentially out of sight, waiting for the next election, and Bill accidentally stepped in his way to create some silence
Reality is what recorded on tape and published