Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the highest number of first-choice votes in the first round of the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor, scheduled for June 24, 2025. The official results will be sourced from the New York City Board of Elections' official website.
Background
The 2025 Democratic primary for New York City Mayor features a diverse field of candidates. Notable contenders include:
Andrew Cuomo: Former Governor of New York, Cuomo resigned in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations. Despite this, he has launched a mayoral campaign, emphasizing his extensive political experience and administrative capabilities. (ft.com)
Zohran Mamdani: A 33-year-old democratic socialist and State Assembly member from Queens, Mamdani has gained attention for his progressive platform, advocating for policies such as free public transit and affordable housing. His campaign has garnered support from younger and progressive voters. (apnews.com)
Recent polls indicate Cuomo leading the field, with Mamdani emerging as a significant challenger. (empirereportnewyork.com)
Considerations
New York City's Democratic primary employs a ranked-choice voting system, allowing voters to rank candidates by preference. If no candidate secures a majority of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed based on subsequent preferences. This process continues until a candidate achieves a majority. Therefore, while the first-round leader is significant, the ultimate nominee may be determined in later rounds. (theatlantic.com)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,226 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,455 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,078 | |
| 4 | Ṁ845 | |
| 5 | Ṁ805 |
People are also trading
Per my comment on another market (https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/who-will-be-the-democratic-nyc-mayo):
> Basically, a bet on Other is a bet that Cuomo's supporters decide en masse to rank him only second or third with a less-likely-to-win moderate candidate (A. Adams, for example) ahead, and Cuomo gets 4th or 3rd. The polling doesn't support this but it's arguably the rational scenario because most Cuomo voters don't like him at all and just see him as a lesser evil - the exact scenario RCV is trying to prevent, but it's failing because Cuomo voters don't seem to understand how it works or otherwise are just really confused about life in general / don't know the candidates.
I don't think it's likely but it's likely enough to throw a tiny bit of mana on it just in case.