Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrew Cuomo, after losing the Democratic primary for the 2025 New York City mayoral election, files as an independent or 3rd party candidate in the general election. If Cuomo does not file to run as an independent following a primary loss or does not appear on the ballot, the market will resolve to "No." Resolves N/A if Cuomo wins the primary.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced their intention to resolve the market. Please see the linked comment for their reasoning.
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People are also trading
@realDonaldTrump Do we really want to pretend that this market and those who bet on it were referring to a technical deadline, and that is why the market has been around 65-85% for days, even though according to your thesis it was 100% certain? Obviously, the market is referring to Cuomo's decision, not to the fact that in order to decide whether or not to run in November, he had to register in June.
@realDonaldTrump Of course, it depends on 0.15% of my mana, not on the fact that Cuomo hasn't yet said whether he will run again. But you've convinced me.
@realDonaldTrump I'm no longer invested in this market so don't care much either way, but how can Cuomo have filed as an independent "after losing the Democratic primary for the 2025 New York City mayoral election" if the deadline to file was before the primary finished?
@HenryRodgers he misspoke I think. the deadline was June 27
@KJW_01294 this market makes no sense. The deadline to withdraw has passed so this can only resolve YES now.
@realDonaldTrump I was playing up my annoyance and don’t need any mana now that you’ve reinvested. Unless you’re really Trump then s my d from the b
@realDonaldTrump hmmm... that doesn't sound much like Trump, i don't think he knows how to say "sorry"
According to this, even before this market was created he was already filed to appear on the ballot under the "Fight and Deliver" party.
“If he doesn’t drop out by tomorrow, he will appear on the ballot in November,” New York election law expert Jerry Goldfeder said.
The description as-is is quite ambiguous now, since he can't really "file as an independent" after losing the primary given that he had already done so beforehand. If it resolves YES based on that filing, which was made before this market, then the market wasn't actually predictive since it was always going to resolve YES.
@cthor I guess I've made 78 mana on this so perhaps I'm slightly biased, but I don't think this needs to resolve N/A. The market was at >80% before the election, implying that people understood this technicality. Additionally, there was talk of Cuomo removing himself from the ballot after the election, and it looks very likely that Cuomo will be actively running this fall, making the YES resolution not just on a technicality, regardless!
@bens this market was super low liquidity and volume before then. I wasn't aware of this technicality and I find it hard to believe the creator or other predictors were either given the wording and close date.
I can take the L on this since I only bought at 30% anyway, but I doubt Hillary Clinton was betting under the presumption there was a >95% chance Cuomo would withdraw his filing within 2 days.
If we'd like to avoid N/A (since N/A sucks) then the description should at least be changed. What are the conditions under which this could possibly be NO now? I think "an official campaign is announced" is probably closest to what people have bet on.