MANIFOLD
Will x.com (formerly Twitter) be forced to restrict access to EU users over DSA compliance by 2026?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ295
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES

Resolution Criteria

The market resolves as "Yes" if any of these occur:

  • EU requires X.com to disable key features for EU users

  • X.com must implement region-specific content restrictions

  • Platform is fined €50M+ for DSA non-compliance

  • X.com voluntarily restricts EU access due to regulatory pressure

Context

The EU's Digital Services Act requires platforms to monitor content, protect user data, and maintain transparency. X.com has faced challenges meeting these requirements.

Market context
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At least one of the bullet points of the resolution has absolutely, unambiguously happened. A few weeks ago, X was fined €120m for non-compliance with the DSA. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g9kejzvw0o


@IB The market resolution is stated to resolve YES if "any" of the four criteria occur, so I have bet accordingly, Yes.

Additionally, there are restrictions on some content on X in the EU e.g. age restriction requirements for adult content. https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2025/0728/1525685-x-introduces-age-assurance-measures-to-meet-regulations/

Australia has introduced a new bill that will impose fines of up to 5% on Elon Musk's Twitter/X global revenue.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-11/acma-crackdown-social-media-disinformation-bill/104339144

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