Twitter / x.com blocked in the EU or Europe? Multimarket for dates
13
2.6kṀ1464
2041
8%
July 1 2025
22%
Oct 1 2025
25%
Jan 1 2026
33%
April 1 2026
33%
July 1 2026
34%
Oct 1 2026
37%
Jan 1 2027
37%
April 1 2027
37%
July 1 2027
37%
Jan 1 2028
37%
July 1 2028
37%
Jan 1 2029
37%
July 1 2029
37%
Jan 1 2030
37%
July 1 2030
37%
Jan 1 2031
37%
July 1 2031
37%
July 1 2032
37%
July 1 2033
37%
July 1 2034

Each time period will resolve to YES if the social network X, formerly known as Twitter, is blocked on the day in question from European Union states because of a court order or a deliberate decision by the company or other reason implying that people with power have achieved an intended goal of having it not be available there.

If twitter goes out of business entirely then remaining claims will NA (since this is based on whether x.com will take a role as the major media source of a cultural group and how it spreads its influence).

Clarifications:

  • If the application is inaccessible from a couple of EU countries it does not count, it has to be the entire EU or the vast majority of it.

  • If the application becomes inaccessible from the whole world due to a decision or a legal action (e.g. bankruptcy) it does count.

  • Inaccessibility due to technical issues does not count.

  • We resolve a time YES when it's been unavailable there for 3 or more days, even if efforts are ongoing to bring it back, etc.

  • Being heavily restricted/filtered does not count as not being available there

  • Applies to future versions of x.com regardless of what happens

Idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfhnTUkW4Mk This Samo Burja video has a bunch of new ideas to me - that x.com / MAGA might be a unifying force even across Europe, and that the democratic party in the US has started to resemble the EU bureaucracy at some point. He makes lots of other interesting predictions in this video, too, which I'd like to see markets for!

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What it is blocked for a period but then reinstated? How exactly does that play out?

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