Will Mira Murati work at an AI lab at the end of Q2 2025?
26
1kṀ21k
Jul 2
98.6%
chance

Includes OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI, Meta.

Should have some publicly listed acknowledgment of the employment, e.g. an interview, press release, or LinkedIn page.

Only consulting (at ~less than <50%) doesn't count.

Includes "doing an Ilya" and starting something that looks ripe for substantial investment, even if not major at time of formation.

I will not trade in this market.

Clarification:
> "Scenario: it's July 2025, we have no idea what Murati is up to. January 2026 we learn that she's been working on a stealth startup with GV and A16Z backing since December 2024. I think something like this is quite likely. Should I bet NO because this ends Q2 when we won't know or will this resolve later if we don't know either way?"

Such case would resolve NO, I will resolve according to known status at market close.

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