Will I have a research position at MIRI by 2025?
21
267
Ṁ430
2025
10%
chance

Get Ṁ200 play money

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6 Comments
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38 Trades
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predicts YES

Relevant markets:

https://manifold.markets/Alana/will-i-have-a-research-position-at-814174e80a45?r=QWxhbmE

Will I have a research position at Anthropic (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025?
16% chance. MIRI: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Alana/will-i-have-a-research-position-at)Conjecture: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Alana/will-i-have-a-research-position-at-525b55a470d4) Alignment research: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Alana/will-i-consider-myself-a-fulltime-a)

https://manifold.markets/Alana/will-i-have-a-research-position-at-525b55a470d4

predicts YES

Alana: will I work at MIRI…

Everyone: “no. Immediately no.”

bought Ṁ3 of NO

@AlanaXiang yeah, they're largely not hiring right now, though 2 years gives a little time for that to change

predicts NO

@AlanaXiang yeah not much of a comment on you

predicts NO

@AlanaXiang So on the bright side this market might actually given you information? Like 30% would be the kind of probability I would put on this if you were already interning there (are you?).

predicts YES

@TassiloNeubauer That’s the point of these markets 🙂

I’m not interning there. I’m working at ARC right now (evals).

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