Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before July 1, 2025, President Donald Trump issues an executive order that imposes significant restrictions on U.S. charities and climate-focused non-profit organizations. "Significant restrictions" are defined as actions that:
Revoke or threaten to revoke the tax-exempt status of these organizations.
Freeze or halt federal funding, grants, or loans to these organizations.
Prohibit or severely limit the activities of these organizations, particularly those related to climate change.
Severely limit to what extent US non-profits can support activities abroad.
The market will resolve to "No" if no such executive order is issued by the specified date.
Largely, something similar to what's described in this FT article. Something of lesser or similar severity, but clearly different from what's described above and in the article, would be most likely to resolve NO.
I will not trade in this market, and will largely rule it by the "Know it when I see it" personal subjective judgment (taking into account views from both sides, if they desire to do so).
Background:
Since President Trump's inauguration in January 2025, there have been several executive actions affecting non-profit organizations, especially those focused on climate change:
Executive Order 14162: Signed on January 20, 2025, this order directed the immediate withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement and other international climate commitments. (en.wikipedia.org)
Executive Order 14169: Also signed on January 20, 2025, this order mandated a 90-day pause on all U.S. foreign development assistance programs to conduct a review, affecting numerous non-profit organizations involved in international aid. (en.wikipedia.org)
In April 2025, reports emerged that climate-focused non-profits were preparing for potential executive actions that could revoke their tax-exempt status or block the use of U.S. grants for international projects. (reuters.com)
Additionally, President Trump has indicated that his administration is reviewing the tax-exempt status of various advocacy groups, including environmental organizations and ethics watchdogs. (apnews.com)
These developments suggest a pattern of executive actions that could lead to significant restrictions on U.S. charities and climate non-profits.
Considerations:
Legal challenges have been mounted against some of these executive actions. For instance, a U.S. judge blocked the administration from freezing grants previously approved under climate and infrastructure laws. (reuters.com)
The definition of "severely limiting" is crucial for this market's resolution. Actions such as revoking tax-exempt status, freezing federal funding, or prohibiting key activities would meet this criterion.
The timeline is also a critical factor. The executive order must be issued before July 1, 2025, for the market to resolve to "Yes."
Recent Developments Affecting U.S. Non-Profits:
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