It has recently been reported that Trump is interested in reducing the cost of drugs paid by American consumers by fixing prices to those paid by other countries (see below).

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trump-sign-executive-order-reducing-prescription-drug-prices-2025-05-11/

This market resolves YES if by the end of 2025 a large share of drugs sold in the US are sold at the same price as in other high income countries because of a Trump executive order. It resolves YES if the EO is stricter goes beyond merely high income countries.

It resolves YES if drug companies exit foreign markets or raise prices in other countries to match those charged to the American consumer.

It resolves NO if the executive order is unenforced by the end of 2025, for example as a result of being ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.

If there is ambiguity around the outcome I aim to resolve with the following questions in mind: Was an executive order with this as the desired effect passed? Was it enforced or there was reason to believe it would be enforced if broken? Do industry professionals believe it to have altered price setting in the US or in other high income countries?

I won't bet on this market.