Will Trump remove a university's tax exempt status by the end of 2026?
22
100Ṁ699
2026
16%
chance

Must be a university that:

-currently has tax-exempt status (like nearly all universities)

-let's say, ranks in the top 200 schools on the US News and World Report's Best National Universities ranking (so not some weird, tiny edge-case school)

<EDIT 4/16/25: If there are pending legal challenges I will obviously hold off on resolving until those are more or less cleared up.>

Must not be removed for normal, non-political reasons (anything that would have led to a university losing its status prior to this administration, for example.

I will not bet in this market to remain objective. It's quite possible there will be edge-cases with regard to what kind of tax-exemptions are removed, the extent, etc. I will try to resolve in the spirit of the market (so if there's some technicality by which small sub-sections of the university are obligated to pay taxes, but for the most part, the status quo is maintained, it will probably not be sufficient to resolve yes).

Context (Harvard):

https://thehill.com/homenews/education/5249387-trump-harvard-tax-exempt-status-funding/

  • Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Actual Removal Requirement: The market resolves as a YES only if the university’s tax-exempt status is actually removed, not merely threatened or announced.

    • Legal Clarity: If legal challenges or court actions suspend or halt the removal, resolution will be deferred until the legal status is fully clear.

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