Must be a university that:
-currently has tax-exempt status (like nearly all universities)
-let's say, ranks in the top 200 schools on the US News and World Report's Best National Universities ranking (so not some weird, tiny edge-case school)
<EDIT 4/16/25: If there are pending legal challenges I will obviously hold off on resolving until those are more or less cleared up.>
Must not be removed for normal, non-political reasons (anything that would have led to a university losing its status prior to this administration, for example.
I will not bet in this market to remain objective. It's quite possible there will be edge-cases with regard to what kind of tax-exemptions are removed, the extent, etc. I will try to resolve in the spirit of the market (so if there's some technicality by which small sub-sections of the university are obligated to pay taxes, but for the most part, the status quo is maintained, it will probably not be sufficient to resolve yes).
Context (Harvard):
https://thehill.com/homenews/education/5249387-trump-harvard-tax-exempt-status-funding/
Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Actual Removal Requirement: The market resolves as a YES only if the university’s tax-exempt status is actually removed, not merely threatened or announced.
Legal Clarity: If legal challenges or court actions suspend or halt the removal, resolution will be deferred until the legal status is fully clear.
1,000People are also trading
I made a similar market here, which differs from this market in not excluding the case where such a removal is attempted but does not succeed in court: https://manifold.markets/Balasar/will-the-trump-administration-attem?r=QmFsYXNhcg
AFAICT the only way this can happen is if the US declares Harvard to be a terrorist-supporting organisation under IEEPA; if it does so, charitable status is immediately lost under IRS 501(c)(p) even if the designation is legally challenged. AFAIK no other route can reasonably get through the supreme court in time.
(Disclaimer: not a lawyer, could be missing something).
edit: oops how did I make this a repost? oh well
@traders this resolves based on the tax status ACTUALLY being removed, not on threats. If the administration says they’re removing it but courts halt that, I won’t resolve until the legal status is clear.
@bens I don’t understand this point here. The Trump administration doesn’t need to convince anyone that this is legal to do it, they just need to find someone in the IRS that is willing to do it in spite of court rulings. The legal status will never be clear, but the entire strategy is that they can act extrajudicially because there is nobody who can/will stop them. The way more likely route they will take here is Tax-exempt status is removed -> University appeals and gets relief -> Trump/Bondi/whoever provide some disingenuous pretext for ignoring the courts. What's going to be the resolution here if the de facto reality is that the taxes exist because refusal to pay is going to result in enforcement even if the de jure ruling is that such an removal is illegal?
@Balasar ya, so if they actually are obligated to pay taxes de facto for fiscal year 2025, this would resolve YES.
But if the Trump admin declares “Harvard is now no longer tax-exempt” and Harvard immediately sues and a judge puts a stay on the order, and it goes up through the federal court system, I’m not going to resolve until it’s clear.
Does that seem reasonable?