Eurovision 2024 Final May 11 Prop Bets [Subsidized] [Megamarket]
Basic
81
Ṁ29k
resolved Jun 19
Resolved
YES
8 or more artists say "thank you" in English audibly on mic just after finishing their performance
Resolved
YES
A participant (i.e. not audience) eats on camera (visibly chewing, holding food, or similar)
Resolved
YES
Someone mentions the inclusion of nations geographically outside of Europe
Resolved
YES
Yet another queer pride flag is bandished by a performer other than Ireland's trans and Switzerland's nonbinary
Resolved
YES
Another queer pride flag is brandished by a performer other than Nemo's nonbinary flag
Resolved
NO
"Palestine" is audibly said by someone with a microphone (crowd screams not enough)
Resolved
NO
An elected politician currently in office speaks
Resolved
NO
≥4h00m runtime
Resolved
NO
Any country gets 0 points
Resolved
NO
Imagine by John Lennon is quoted, sung, named, or otherwise obviously referenced
Resolved
NO
The big moving ceiling cubes/panels fuck up noticeably (one gets stuck, or lights go off, etc.)
Resolved
NO
Female solo artist winner
Resolved
NO
Winner has 2x points of 2nd place
Resolved
NO
Any performance has to be restarted, for any reason
Resolved
NO
≥4h30m runtime
Resolved
NO
Male solo artist winner
Resolved
NO
All four ABBA members performing on stage
Resolved
NO
A second country drops out of the May 11th Finals
Resolved
NO
Last country jury distributing their points could change position #1 (BEFORE audience votes)
Resolved
NO
Winner has 1.5x points of 2nd place

Please only submit questions concerning the May 11 final, not semifinals or things happening outside of the final as shown on TV.

  • Make your submissions as clear and objective as possible. The criteria should be easy to understand without reading any comments or relying on anyone's opinion.

  • Please do not submit answers that require counting multiple instances of something occurring, or anything else that is difficult to keep track of.

  • Be clear when a submission is about a person saying exact words, and use quotation marks around those words to indicate this. If the bet is about whether or not a general subject is raised, make this clear by using the phrase "says anything about X".

I reserve the right to resolve markets as N/A for any reason, e.g. if I feel like they're off-topic, poorly worded, et.c.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ343
2Ṁ323
3Ṁ203
4Ṁ161
5Ṁ104
Sort by:

@HenriThunberg When will you resolve the market?

@No_ones_ghost I've resolved the stuff that's easily observable. Will leave the rest of them up for a day or two and then resolve if there are no big swings or discoveries.

If you're particularly heavily invested in some question you can ask to have it resolved earlier.

Damnit Lithuania, we were so close to greatness! But oh well, Ukraines song was great.

Croatia gave 0 to Germany, right?

Bambi Thug had the rainbow flag in vote count, and Spanish dancers had a variant as well.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Just to clarify: this means they don't receive a single point by anyone right?

@varvalle he said in a comment "resolves yes if Germany gets 0 points from any jury"

@HenriThunberg oof i see. Thought i had an arbitrage. Thanks for clarifying

@varvalle yeah I unfortunately fell for the same ambiguity

sold Ṁ48 NO

@HenriThunberg Hey why did you buy it down when they were "speaking" and then buy it up and resolve Yes afterwards?

bought Ṁ2 NO

@Panfilo not sure I'm exactly live. Might be a bit behind? I bought YES on the Alcazar hint thing first, then bought NO when it wasn't ABBA. Then when ABBA members were definitely speaking (whether digital copies or not, I am confident I want to still count that).

I realize this might have been confusing if you were using my trades to get info on resolution, sorry in that case.

@HenriThunberg No, the digital copies should definitely not count. Also this "appearance" was known beforehand: https://eurovoix.com/2024/05/11/eurovision-2024-abba-voyage-appear-during-grand-final/

@HenriThunberg I was aware of the digital thing beforehand because it was in the news so I figured it wouldn't count, as Daniel has pointed out. Otherwise it would have been at 99% all along. Also yes, I think you are 2-3 minutes behind and that threw me off.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@Panfilo we can discuss this more later. Sorry, I didn't know the Voyage thing was publicly known.

@Panfilo I realize you took a big hit here and a win for me. Again, let's discuss later.

@HenriThunberg Not life-changing, I just want to understand for future markets so I don't get Obamacared again.

It was a clip from a prerecorded virtual concert in London, not a live speech, but it's unclear how this should resolve.

@Panfilo didn't say it needed to be live though. And I think it was specifically recorded for this show right, not the standard London one?

The trans flag costume earlier counted. Just wanted to clarify this before more people bet.

Which pride flag is this

bought Ṁ200 YES

"Thank you Europe and Australia"

reposted

Starting now!

sold Ṁ33 NO

“Netherlands don’t peform their song.”

In English you would say:

NO, Netherlands don’t perform their song. And

YES, Netherlands do perform their song.

So whoever created that question: ughhh.

bought Ṁ20 YES

Betting YES purely for the meme on this. Perfect question.

@AlexbGoode resolves yes if Germany gets 0 points from any jury. I hope it's clear enough :)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules