Closest senate race in the 2024 US election?
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14
Ṁ1435
Nov 16
22%
Ohio: Brown vs Moreno
17%
Florida: Mucarsel-Powell vs Scott
15%
Texas: Allred vs Cruz
11%
Wisconsin: Baldwin vs Hovde
10%
Montana: Tester vs Sheehy
8%
Nevada: Rosen vs Brown
7%
Michigan: Slotkin vs Rogers
7%
Arizona: Gallego vs Lake
1.6%
Pennsylvania: Casey vs McCormick
1.6%
Maryland: Alsobrooks vs Hogan

Resolves to whichever race ends up being the tightest, measured by final vote margin. If the closest Senate race is ultimately one not on this list, I will still resolve to whichever of these 10 is the closest.

i.e. if most races are won by 2%+ points but one race is won by just 1%, then that one race would be considered the closest.

Trading closes November 4th.

Measured by vote %, not raw vote count.

Inspired by: Tracking the Senate's Most Competitive Races (NYT)

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@HelloWorld @mods This question was resolved incorrectly. The margin in Michigan is D+0.37, however the margin in Pennsylvania is currently R+0.34 (already closer than Michigan) and a recount is being held in Pennsylvania which could change the margin further.

@HelloWorld That's a rounding error derived from the fact those outlets only goes to one decimal point. If you take the margins that NBC gives you and divide them by the total votes you get:

Michigan: 19763/5,572,822=0.00354631818

Pennsylvania: 23158/6,936,691=0.0033384794

Pennsylvania is closer. Regardless, when it's this close you shouldn't have resolved until they finished counting votes. Pennsylvania still has tens of thousands of votes to count and a recount ahead of it.

The math checks out, I've unresolved it for now.

No VA? I have a soft spot for Hung Cao.

Measured by % margin not vote counts right?

@HenryRodgers Margin, sure

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