Resolves to whichever race ends up being the tightest, measured by final vote margin. If the closest Senate race is ultimately one not on this list, I will still resolve to whichever of these 10 is the closest.
i.e. if most races are won by 2%+ points but one race is won by just 1%, then that one race would be considered the closest.
Trading closes November 4th.
Measured by vote %, not raw vote count.
Inspired by: Tracking the Senate's Most Competitive Races (NYT)
1,000
3.00@HelloWorld @mods This question was resolved incorrectly. The margin in Michigan is D+0.37, however the margin in Pennsylvania is currently R+0.34 (already closer than Michigan) and a recount is being held in Pennsylvania which could change the margin further.
@HenryRodgers 0.3 and 0.4 here according to NBC
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/michigan-senate-results
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-senate-results
As well as CNN: https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/senate?election-data-id=2024-SG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false
And the AP: https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/?office=S
@HelloWorld That's a rounding error derived from the fact those outlets only goes to one decimal point. If you take the margins that NBC gives you and divide them by the total votes you get:
Michigan: 19763/5,572,822=0.00354631818
Pennsylvania: 23158/6,936,691=0.0033384794
Pennsylvania is closer. Regardless, when it's this close you shouldn't have resolved until they finished counting votes. Pennsylvania still has tens of thousands of votes to count and a recount ahead of it.
@mods Both PA & MI have now been certified.
PA Margin: 15,115/6,963,137=0.00217
MI Margin: 19,006/5,577,183=0.00341
This can resolve to Pennsylvania.
@HenryRodgers I attempted to search for each state's 'official results' available online. Everything I found agrees with your figures, so I will resolve to Pennsylvania. Thank you.
Measured by % margin not vote counts right?