Resolves based on this trend for the topic AI alignment (not the literal search string "AI alignment"):
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11bzrg63f7
What will the multiplier be from the trends index for the first two weeks of January 2022 to that index for the first two weeks of January 2024? If there's no change, this would resolve to 1.0. If the plot shows Jan '22 interest at zero due to a large spike later, I'll treat the zero value as 1.0 for the purpose of setting the multiplier, so a reading of (Jan '22: 0, Jan '24: 78) would resolve to 78.0.
Mar 2, 11:55am: How much will Google Trends interest in AI alignment change from Jan '22 to Dec '23? → How much will Google Trends interest in AI alignment change from Jan '22 to Jan '24?
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@Hedgehog could you clarify how the multiplier works? When I export the data from Google Trends I still get the same numbers as from the charts, so not sure how we could distinguish numbers between 0 to 1 out of 100?
I am the only trader with a position currently, would you consider changing this market to being on a range from 0-100 according to clearly legible metric at Google Trends, rather than as a multiple?
@HenriThunberg IIRC the scale is totally arbitrary and changes based on whatever the peak is. The question is what the multiplier will be from one date to the other. So if the final numbers are 28 for Jan ‘22 and 56 for Jan ‘24, then the multiplier is 56/28=2.0.
@Hedgehog alright so at least we agree on using the same metric, which is the visible one. Great!
I just think there's a high risk of (certainty?) that the number for Jan 1-14 2022 will be 0, unless I am making some mistake. A suggestion for solution is, for multiplier purposes, to set 0=1 here?
What you'll be comparing would still be Jan '24 compared to the peak of 100 (whether that's in Jan '24 or some other time) not so much with Jan '22 as stated in the question title.