How much will Google Trends interest in AI consciousness change from Jan '24 to Jan '26?
6
960Ṁ1222026
8%
<=0.3x
16%
>.3x, <=1x
21%
>1x, <=3x
28%
>3x, <=10x
27%
>10x
Resolves based on this trend for the query "ai consciousness"
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=ai%20consciousness
What will the multiplier be from the trends index for the first two weeks of January 2024 to that index for the first two weeks of January 2026? If there's no change, this would resolve to 1.0. If the plot shows Jan '24 interest at zero due to a large spike later, I'll treat the zero value as 1.0 for the purpose of setting the multiplier, so a reading of (Jan '24: 0, Jan '26: 78) would resolve to 78.0.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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