I’m skeptical that even Anthropic would be able to pull this off.

@jyscao I am as well. But I excluded them because the CEO has at least some motivation to make his predictions come true.

What date is this based on? April 1, 2026 as in the headline, or Dec 31, 2025 as in the description?

@PanAnon April, updated now. That was lingering form the AI suggestion, thanks for catching it

Does it need to be an American $10B+ company, or e.g. Chinese company statement credibly taken at face value could also resolve YES?

@HenriThunberg No problem on the country of origin, however the publicly traded part still stands, and the report needs to be reasonably credible.

If a company says that 98%+ of it's code is created with the assistance of AI without further detail, would that count to resolve this as yes?

I could foresee a major tech company saying that they have an AI code reviewer looking over 98%+ of their code, but that feels quite different than it truly being AI generated. But we might not get such specifics.

@MarcusM Hmm, if it only says assistance and no other details, then it should resolve No. The key point is AI writes the code, not reviews it or assists. It doesn't need to be agents, it's totally fine if its written by AI being prompted. In fact, that is what Dario describes in the reference.

this is for code written going forward, and not 98% of their entire code base, right?

@ian Yes, good call out! I will update