Elon Musk criticizes China or CCP before 2026.
34
170
820
2025
40%
chance

Resolves as YES if Elon Musk publicly criticizes China, Chinese government policy, the Chinese Communist Party, or major CCP figures (such as Xi Jinping) in the time period from the creation of this question (October 12th, 2022) to the start of 2026.

Data must come from Musk's Twitter feed (or an equivalent social media source known to be operated by Musk) or a direct quote of Musk reported in a reputable news organization. Indirect attribution does not count. (For example, if a person goes on record and says that Elon was criticizing Xi at a party, then that doesn't count.)

If Musk tweets and then quickly deletes a criticism, the question will resolve as YES if the tweet was stored in a reputable archive website or stored and reported by a reputable news organization.

Any Musk criticisms that occurred before October 12th, 2022 do not qualify.

As it is hard to follow all of Musk's activity, I welcome market participants to report criticisms that may qualify in the comments page. Please provide a link to a data source that meets the criteria above.

The definition of criticism used in this question comes from the Oxford English Dictionary: "[Criticism is] the expression of disapproval of someone or something on the basis of perceived faults or mistakes."

Since I will have extraordinary discretion over what constitutes criticism, I will not purchase YES or NO tickets in this market or any related market.

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
sold Ṁ179 of NO

Dammit, I forgot that I promised I wouldn't participate in this market. I bought and then immediately sold at a loss of M$20. Apologies. BTW -- 65%????? This looks like free money to me.

predicts NO

@mr22222222 Problem is Musk. Just can't trust him to speak in a way that aligns with his interests.

predicts YES

/StrayClimb/elon-musk-criticizes-china-or-ccp-t

/StrayClimb/elon-musk-criticizes-china-or-ccp-i

Here are some shorter term markets for the same question. They will (barring extreme controversy) defer to the results of this question.

predicts YES

Important market

I've opted out of trading in this market. It's sad that I can't profit off of NO trading at the ludicrously low rate of 27%.

sold Ṁ75 of NO

Apologies, I mistakenly bought NO tickets. I sold them and received exactly zero profit.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Musk likes to criticise people.

@arae Yeah. It's not obvious to me how this one turns out. He's very unpredictable. On the other hand, he does seem to tread lightly (or even talk a party line) when discussing China and he has major business interests there that could evaporate overnight if he loses favor.