Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if, prior to January 1, 2029, at 11:59 PM UTC, Elon Musk flees the United States. For the purpose of this market, "fleeing" requires at least one of the following conditions to be met and verified by official law enforcement announcements or consensus reporting from major news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, or Bloomberg):
Musk departs the United States—or remains outside the United States—specifically to avoid an active arrest warrant, criminal indictment, contempt order, or court-mandated detention.
Official federal or state law enforcement authorities (such as the U.S. Department of Justice) formally declare or designate Musk as a fugitive from justice.
Musk formally applies for or receives political asylum, refugee status, or non-extradition protection from a foreign government to evade U.S. legal proceedings.
Exclusions and edge cases:
Regular international travel, foreign business operations, extraterrestrial travel, or relocating residence abroad while not evading criminal prosecution or an active warrant will not trigger a YES resolution.
Standard civil litigation, regulatory penalties (e.g., SEC enforcement actions), or non-criminal congressional subpoenas do not qualify unless accompanied by a criminal arrest warrant or contempt warrant that Musk is actively evading abroad.
If Elon Musk dies before January 1, 2029, without having met any of the qualifying conditions, this market resolves NO.
If no qualifying event occurs before the cutoff time, the market resolves NO.
Background
Elon Musk holds citizenship in South Africa, Canada, and the United States. As the leader of major defense and commercial contractors (SpaceX, Tesla, xAI, and X) and a prominent political figure involved in U.S. government reform initiatives, Musk frequently faces regulatory scrutiny and political friction. Speculation regarding potential legal jeopardy or international relocation often surfaces during election cycles and shifts in federal administrative oversight.
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1,000