A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.
50
1kṀ5679
2027
19%
chance

This question resolves as "YES" if a publicly-traded competitor to Google has higher search-derived revenue than Google during four consecutive quarters some time before 2028.

For the purposes of this claim, Chinese companies such as Baidu do not count as competitors to Google because they are state-affiliated firms that benefit from Internet protectionism.

Data for resolution of this claim should come from securities filings such as 10-K annual reports filed with the SEC. If Google's competitor files its 10-K in a different quarter than Alphabet (Google's parent company), the competitor's 10-K numbers can be compared with Alphabet's 10-K numbers for the same fiscal year. (For example, if Alphabet's 2018 10-K and its competitor's 2018 10-K show that the competitor had higher search-derived revenues during the 2018 fiscal year, the question will be resolved as "YES" even if Alphabet files in Q1 but the competitor files in Q2.)

If Google's competitor uses a currency other than the USD to denominate its revenues, the comparison between revenues should be calculated using the median exchange rate for the currencies over 365 days as calculated by a reputable financial data service.

"Search" refers to queries that primarily return results from parts of the Internet not operated by the search engine company. For example, Amazon searches will not count if they primarily or exclusively yield results from the Amazon Marketplace. YouTube queries will not count if they primarily or exclusively yield only results from YouTube. This means that if Google's search results are mostly links to Alphabet-related websites, they do not count as search queries.

The burden of proof is on showing that "YES" is true. If no one can produce the data to support "YES," then the market will be resolved as "NO" after the question closes.

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