Will Donald Trump try to revive mandatory draft for young men. For what ever fucked up purposes.
17
100αΉ€595
Mar 1
9%
chance

Donald wants to use troops for domestic purposes as well as acquiring Greenland, Canada and the panama canal, currently. Will he try to use the military to reach his objectives.

Background

Donald Trump has not officially announced plans to revive mandatory military conscription. While some individuals associated with Trump have suggested implementing mandatory national service programs, these discussions have not translated into formal policy proposals. The last military draft in the U.S. ended in 1973, and any attempt to reinstate it would require congressional approval.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if, during his campaign or if elected president, Donald Trump:

  • Officially proposes legislation to reinstate the military draft

  • Issues executive orders attempting to reinstate the draft

  • Publicly advocates for mandatory military service as official policy

The market will resolve NO if none of these occur by the end of 2025 or the end of his term if elected.

Considerations

  • The Selective Service System remains in place, requiring men aged 18-25 to register, but this is separate from an active draft

  • Any attempt to reinstate the draft would face significant legal and political hurdles

  • Constitutional limitations restrict the use of military forces for domestic law enforcement (Posse Comitatus Act)

  • Previous statements about territorial acquisition (Greenland) or military deployments have not been accompanied by specific policy proposals regarding conscription

  • Changes to military leadership structure or policies do not necessarily indicate plans to reinstate the draft

Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

i think this is very unlikely but this framing reduces my trust in an accurate resolution

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Terms + Mana-only Termsβ€’Privacyβ€’Rules