Will Wikipedia page "Existential risk from artificial general intelligence" receive >25k views for any month in 2024?
10
112
145
2025
80%
chance

Past data available here. As of the writing of this description, the highest traffic was in May, when it received almost 38k views, and the monthly views have since dropped to below 20k.

Edit: I will not resolve YES based on an outcome that appears to have likely been the result of manipulation e.g. flooding the page with bots.

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Will this really be resolved strictly according to the pageview data, even if somebody uses a bot to manipulate the outcome, similar to what happened in https://manifold.markets/market/will-irisigb-cross-25k-twitterx-fol?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@dp9000 Oh I hadn't considered that possibility. I definitely don't want to incentivize that sort of thing, so if it seems likely to me that the pageview data was caused by manipulation I won't count that.