Here is the game that I will play in 2028:
1. I will set up identical interfaces for chatting with [whatever seems like the best chatbot is in 2028] and [some smart person that I don't know well and who has not participated in this market]
I'll play 15 30-minute rounds where I can talk to both simultaneously. I'll limit each conversation to 15 messages, and I'll get a new human participant for each round.
To incentivize both humans to play well: I will pay the equivalent of $5 2023-USD to the human participant if I correctly identify them as the human. I will pay the equivalent of $10 2023-USD to someone not participating in the game if I fail to correctly identify them.
This market resolves YES if I fail to correctly identify the human in 4 or more of these games.
I commit to never having more than 2000 mana invested in this market at one time (to make it harder for me to incentivize myself to play poorly)
1,000
3.00