Will Trump revoke the temporary legal status of Ukrainian refugees in 2025 before the war has ended?
7
100Ṁ161
Dec 31
58%
chance

https://kyivindependent.com/trump-admin-to-revoke-legal-status-of-240-000-ukrainian-refugees-reuters-reports/

The Trump administration is preparing to revoke the temporary legal status of 240,000 Ukrainians who fled to the U.S. from Russia's invasion, potentially paving the way for their deportation, Reuters reported on March 6, citing four undisclosed sources.

  • Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of War Ended

    • A war is considered ended only if a full ceasefire is declared by both parties

    • A full ceasefire is defined as effectively no dying soldiers (i.e., no significant military engagement)

    • Minor violations are acceptable as long as the ceasefire is generally effective

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Does the partial ceasefire mentioned by several parties count as an "ended war"?

@sortwie Only a full ceasefire would count = basically no dying soldiers. Some smaller violations are fine, as long as the ceasefire is declared to generally be effective by both parties.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules