Specifically: Will Joe Biden's approval rating reach 50% or higher at some point during the rest of his presidency?

This market will either resolve when Biden's approval rating hits 50%, or when Biden stops being the president. I will be referring only to FiveThirtyEight's calculation of Biden's approval rating.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

very specific details:

If, from the moment of this market's creation onwards, FiveThirtyEight calculates Biden's approval rating to be at or greater than 50%, then this market will resolve as YES. If Biden ceases to be the President, then this market will resolve as NO. If FiveThirtyEight ceases calculating Biden's approval rating, and if the Associated Press has not called someone other than Biden as the winner of the 2024 Presidential election, and if the 2028 Presidential election has not yet begun, then this market will resolve as N/A. If FiveThirtyEight ceases calculating Biden's approval rating, and if the Associated Press has called someone other than Biden as the winner of the 2024 Presidential election, then this market will resolve as NO. If FiveThirtyEight ceases calculating Biden's approval rating, and if the 2028 Presidential election has begun, then this market will resolve as NO.

Close date updated to 2024-02-01 6:59 pm

Close date updated to 2025-01-20 12:00 pm