Specifically: Will Joe Biden's approval rating reach 50% or higher at some point during the rest of his presidency?
This market will either resolve when Biden's approval rating hits 50%, or when Biden stops being the president. I will be referring only to FiveThirtyEight's calculation of Biden's approval rating.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
very specific details:
If, from the moment of this market's creation onwards, FiveThirtyEight calculates Biden's approval rating to be at or greater than 50%, then this market will resolve as YES. If Biden ceases to be the President, then this market will resolve as NO. If FiveThirtyEight ceases calculating Biden's approval rating, and if the Associated Press has not called someone other than Biden as the winner of the 2024 Presidential election, and if the 2028 Presidential election has not yet begun, then this market will resolve as N/A. If FiveThirtyEight ceases calculating Biden's approval rating, and if the Associated Press has called someone other than Biden as the winner of the 2024 Presidential election, then this market will resolve as NO. If FiveThirtyEight ceases calculating Biden's approval rating, and if the 2028 Presidential election has begun, then this market will resolve as NO.
Close date updated to 2024-02-01 6:59 pm
Close date updated to 2025-01-20 12:00 pm
Related questions
Created a market that only covers his first term:
https://manifold.markets/TomShlomi/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-rea-749220fb226d
@a Clinton, Reagan, and Carter have all recovered from similarly low (40-45%) approval ratings at this stage of their presidency.
@a They also weren't slurring their words and stuttering in every speech at this stage of their presidency.
Yes, a few more trillion dollar Inflation Reduction Acts that actually increase inflation should do the trick. Throw in a few hollow words in support of the blacks gays and trans that you never supported for decades prior in public office, and a couple billion more to a proxy war with Russia, and how could you not win sweeping public favor.
Face it, it's over. Maybe he does sign some good policies, and maybe inflation will drop. The problem with Biden is he is incapable of standing as the leader guiding the country's vision, and anything good that might come from his presidency won't be attributed to him (and rightfully so, imo). Go watch any of Biden's speeches on any of the policies/platforms he's promoting, and then go watch Clinton, Reagan, and Carter.
They all provide a vision people can rally behind, even if they disagree or don't know. Biden just comes across as hollow. Remember Obama's "Hope", and Biden's "Unity"? Nobody took "Unity" as anything more than a hollow buzzword, and it was gone from earth after the first 10 days.
Here's two that I just picked at random, searching for "Biden remarks act" and "Reagan remarks act":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evzX-3kuzTY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qM3cH9xiHMU
Maybe I'm just biased, maybe you think I'm a liar and I've cherrypicked the examples, but having a president relate a tax bill to the foundations of American innovation and striving toward American dream seems more visionary and sincere than just stating that it's "ever ever ever the best ever no hyperbole", and throwing in "cheaper stuff for families and climate change too" buzzwords.