Will Biden’s approval ever exceed 50% (sans emergency)?
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2029
23%
chance
N/A in case of major national security crisis eg war, terrorist attack, or the like
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We could right now be in emergency. How to be sure we’re not? Seems at least as likely as we’re past the Singularity, or we’re living in a simulation.

I assume before market creation doesn't count.

@ShadowyZephyr Not sure that would make a difference.

predicts NO

@BTE It would.

@ShadowyZephyr When did he have 50 percent approval? His vote total does not equate to an approval rating.

@BTE https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ shows

it above 50% until mid-2021.

But it does seem to me that the market should be interpreted as "after market creation", especially given that it was otherwise true from the start.

What source are you using for the approval rating?