Market Overview
This market resolves YES if Indonesia and Laos together account for more than 40% of US solar module imports by mid-2026.
Context
The share of module imports from Indonesia and Laos has grown to 34.6% in Q1 2025. Module imports from Cambodia have dropped to 0 GW in 2025, and concurrently, there has been an increased presence of alternative sourcing locations in the US module import mix. In 1Q25, US module capacity stood at 50.5 GW; in contrast, US cell capacity amounted to only 2.3 GW. Excluding thin-film module capacity, the U.S. faces a cell capacity gap of approximately 37 GW, necessitating imports from Indonesia and Laos.
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if official US trade data or SEIA reports confirm that Indonesia and Laos combined account for more than 40% of US solar module imports (by volume or value) by June 30, 2026. Resolves NO if combined share is 40% or less.
Resolution Source: https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-q2-2025/ (the relevant 2026 report)
Update 2026-07-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait for Q2 2026 data (expected a couple months after June 2026) before resolving, as the latest report (released June 10) only contains Q1 2026 numbers. Resolution may occur later than the market close date.
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Could you share the Q2 2026 source or table used for NO? I found the Q3 SEIA report, but its public summary does not give the Indonesia + Laos import shares. Your July clarification says to use Q2 rather than Q1, and the criterion allows either volume or value, so I have not independently verified both measures.