Will a large impact crater be discovered by 2029?
Basic
6
Ṁ632029
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolve to YES if a new large impact structure is discovered before January 1, 2029. “Large” is defined as having a diameter of 50 km or more.
According to Earth Impact Database, there are 13 such impact structures with this diameter: Karakul, Vredefort, Chicxulub, Sudbury, Popigai, Manicouagan, Acraman, Morokweng, Kara, Beaverhead, Tookoonooka, Charlevoix, and Siljan Ring. I will use the Earth Impact Database, maintained by the PASSC, as the primary resolution source. If that is not updated, the “List of impact craters on earth” Wikipedia page may also be used. A peer reviewed journal article stating such a discovery would also be sufficient.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?
55% chance
Will planet 9 be discovered by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will planet 9 be discovered before 2030?
22% chance
Will an exomoon be discovered by the end of 2025?
66% chance
Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?
56% chance
Will we find the wreckage of Aisland 1 by January 1 2025?
30% chance
Will a human land on the moon by 2028?
18% chance
Will Earth have a new impact crater of at least 100 m caused by a meteor by 2033?
5% chance
Will planet 9 be discovered by 2026?
11% chance
Will Planet 9's existence be verified by 2030?
19% chance