Will Russia invade Kiev by end of 2022?

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resolved Jan 23

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Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

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Are we using Metaculus's definition of an invasion (100+ troops cross the border into Kiev)? See: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/

@GustavoLacerda Has the failed invasion that happened and withdrawn counts as YES already?

this can be now resolved as yes, right?

Lol, "lock up my money for almost a year" :(

@Yev Lol, "Lol, "lock up my money for almost a year" :(" :D

@Yev Lol, “Lol, "Lol, "lock up my money for almost a year" :(" :D” ;)

Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/conditional-on-ukraine-being-invade I would bet more, but I don't want to lock up my money for almost a year.