Will Manifold Markets add a Merge Function for Multiple Answer Questions by the end of the year?
Jan 1, 2023
M$99 bet
This market will resolve to yes if there is *any* merge functionality added to Free Response questions before the end of the year. In markets that allow multiple answers, sometimes duplicate answers are created by users. This disrupts the accuracy of the market and will distort payouts and costs. For example, in the @AdamAdam pointed out here: https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/who-will-be-the-administrator-of-th#UVHCb6sRp0IO3M0HX7Iv That @Test Test submitted a duplicate answer that I had already submitted. When I checked the other answers I noticed that this was not the only duplicate. There are many different ways that Manifold could create a merge function. Allow the question asker to merge answers, allow answer submitters to merge them collaboratively, or some sort of community nomination and confirmation process. This market will resolve as long as there is some kind of merge function before the end of the year regardless of the specific function that Manifold Markets chooses (or not) to implement.
Honourary
Honourary answered
Question Creator can Merge
30%
Honourary
Honourary answered
Answer Creator can Merge
10%
Honourary
Honourary answered
No
9%
Honourary
Honourary answered
Community Process for Merging
8%
Honourary
Honourary answered
No
6%
Honourary
Honourary answered
Yes
6%
Honourary
Honourary answered
Yes
5%
MartinRandall
Creator can delete duplicates
1.0%
Add your answer
Honourary
Question Creator can Merge
30%
JamesGrugett
@Honourary Yes! This is something we want to do. Aside from merging, we also want to support betting against answers. Plus, we intend to switch to fixed payouts (instead of the current system which only roughly gives the payout it says.) With these mechanics, I think free response markets will be a lot more useful!
0
Honourary
Answer Creator can Merge
10%
Honourary
No
9%
Honourary
Community Process for Merging
8%
Honourary
No
6%
Honourary
Yes
6%
Honourary
Yes
5%
MartinRandall
Creator can delete duplicates
1.0%
MartinRandall
Strongbad merge
0
General Comments