What new Manifold features would be the highest ROI?

368

Ṁ4.8K

resolved Mar 6

ALL

40%5%

The ability to take out a limited loan for each market.

20%0.9%

Sort my markets by expected payout or M$ invested

20%0.6%

Show the site's total user count

10%59%

Summary statistics to judge a market maker's reputation

5%5%

Open-sourcing the codebase.

5%0.5%

Make market creation more intuitive or reduce the number of clicks

0.6%

"Favorite" or "Follow" a market, without having to bet in it

0.7%

Let market creators edit their question & market close time (and publicly log the edits)

Additional sign-in methods (email, Twitter, Apple)

0.7%

Some way to see individual users' track records of successful/unsuccessful bets

0.5%

Remember a user's preferred market sorting

Private markets (secret link or select users that can see it)

1.3%

Ability to hide questions (and have this be remembered)

1.9%

Add a simple Ledger that shows users their itemized spending / income (credit/debit)

1.7%

Traders allowed to comment on a question for at least a day after it resolves?

0.8%

Within-site notifications on markets you've bet on resolving

In-app notifications. There's a little bell icon in the top right, overlayed with the number of unread notifications. You click it and it shows a list of recent comments from markets you bet in or created, payouts from recently resolved markets, and new markets you could be interested in.

1.5%

Allow buying negative YES up to your current amount. Merge your YES positions per market.

All markets listed on a single webpage (upto hundreds of rows) in spreadsheet format, so _one_ row per market. Make this single table sortable and filterable, by clicking on any column(s). e.g. filter to the type of market you are interested in and sort by amount wagered

An ability to trade real money

Our #features Discord channel has been popping lately -- everyone has great ideas and it's hard to know which to prioritize! Let's use the new Free Response option to gather people's opinions. How I'll resolve this: I'll select the feature suggestion with the highest perceived return on investment (in terms of making users happy per dev time spent) as the winner. We may be implementing these features throughout the week; if a feature is gets implemented between market creation and market resolution, it's still fair game to be chosen as the winner. Mar 6, 12:14am: So many great ideas, so hard to choose! Here's what I landed on: 40%: The ability to take out a limited loan for each market - this was the headline feature of this week, and although it's too early to say for sure, feedback and traffic numbers have been quite positive so far 20%: Sort my markets by expected payout or M$ invested - this was implemented, and very easy to do 20%: Show the site's total user count - this was implemented, and very easy to do (see https://manifold.markets/analytics ) 10%: Summary statistics to judge a market maker's reputation - this had the largest portion of the pool by far, but it's not clear to me exactly which statistics to summarize 5%: Open-sourcing the codebase. - not implemented, but pet proposal of Austin's 5%: Make market creation more intuitive or reduce the number of clicks - not implemented, but will probably be soon. I realize my original resolution specified that I would only pick a single winner, and I ended up choosing a bunch; in my defense, the "multi-resolve" ability had not yet been implemented at the time when I posed this question, and it felt more correct to me to resolve this way than picking a single one.

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bought Ṁ60 of Partial resolution o...

Dividends also treat the problem of later answers that are more specific than earlier answers: Pay out a dividend to the earlier answer according to the portion of its probability mass covered by the later answer. Perhaps liquidate the same portion of the positions in the earlier answer.

bought Ṁ100 of Partial resolution o...

Let a 'Free Response' creator administrate answers individually. The implementation I expect to be simplest/cheapest in dev time is to let the creator pick the probability an answer resolves at immediately, pay out that portion of the *current* pool, and liquidate all positions in it. You could call it "dividends": Put the payout on a separate button from the liquidation, let OP payout multiple times, *very optionally* show a list of dividend %s that an answer already received. This feature is in the spirit of giving the creator a powerful sandbox. Manifold's strength is in its reliance on creators following their own rules. You're reinventing smart contracts, with humans instead of the blockchain. Give the humans as much room to be creative as you can - in a month, you may find common use cases that are worth giving their own user interface.

bought Ṁ10 of The ability to take ...

Shamelessly stolen from https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/play-money-and-reputation-systems

bought Ṁ1 of Traders allowed to c...

https://manifold.markets/hamnox/what-will-the-second-place-answer-o Market on second-place answers

bought Ṁ10 of Graphs for multiple-...

Zoom to part of the timeline, hover over a dot to see attached comment, etc.

bought Ṁ5 of Private markets (sec...

A lot of potential for experimentation with personal questions!

bought Ṁ2 of Summary statistics t...

I don't wanna add this, but I've been pondering how you'd implement *options* or *shorts* on shares for long term markets. It's really frustrating to lock your money up for years on end, even if you're extremely sure of your returns.

bought Ṁ10 of Ability to hide ques...

Unrelated to this answer choice - this question would be more informative if the top half of effective answers (or at least top several) resolved YES.