Will a quantum computer break AES256 encryption in the next 12 month?
48
1.0M
Nov 2
5%
chance

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bought Ṁ20 YES

trying to deleverage, if anyone wants to buy my position, lmk

opened a Ṁ1,500 NO at 8% order

@Bayesian I did an order for NO at 8%

sold Ṁ2,236 NO

@Adamlp did something happen or are you just selling out of your position

@Bayesian Yeah wondering the same thing?

@Adamlp You seeing increased variance here?

@Adamlp Maybe the recent ssh compression day0 P0 means cryptography is broken

@Adamlp I'm sorry, what?

predicts NO

@TimothyBandors there is certainly a lot of hype recently for AI but this does not seem anywhere feasible a domain for GenAi, AGI, or any other ML to make traction on.

@equinoxhq Grovers algo can get a symmetric (non asymmetric encryption) 256 bit problem down to 128 bit equivalent difficulty for a quantum computer but I think we're still safe for quite a while.

predicts NO

@Adamlp thanks, didn't know that.

I wonder if AI will find some Uber clever way to break any of our current mainstream cryptos

AES (and symmetric crypto generally) are not known to be vulnerable to breaking through quantum computing. Public key crypto that relies on prime factorization is what's vulnerable. But we don't have quantum computers nearly big enough for breaking 256 bit keys of asymmetric crypto algorithms, let alone the several thousand bit keys that are typically used in those algorithms. I believe it was last year, but might have been late 2022, when a quantum computer successfully calculated that the factors of 35 are 7 and 5.

2% is still orders of magnitude too high

lol 5% are you kidding me?

11% was ridiculously high

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