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MANIFOLD
Will Kurzgesagt Apologize for Ozempic Video?
30
αΉ€100αΉ€1.3k
resolved Mar 4
Resolved
YES

Kurzgesagt (aka In a Nut Shell) published a YouTube video about the benefits of Ozempic.

The comments are among the most negative Kurzgesagt has ever received.

Resolution: This market resolves YES if Kurzgesagt apologizes on any of their official social media accounts, YouTube channels, or takes down the video by the expiration date of this market.

There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description. Resolution = Expiry.

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absolutely mogged this market. holy hell im goated

@No_uh Congratulations! That's quite the win! πŸ’πŸ«˜

I had a NO position, but am resolving YES since kurzgesagt has just apologized. Here's a link to their full comment on YouTube.

The relevant quote:

We’re not interested in advertising specific drugs or pushing simple solutions to complex problems but in this case we obviously failed communicating that. We try to break down complicated science in a way that’s accessible, and sometimes simplification can unintentionally shift emphasis. This sucks and we are annoyed at ourselves, this video was a lot of work and it was not planned to be controversial. We're working on an updated version of the video, where we'll add more context and information.

@GnosticGirl For posterity now that the market is over, it's sad to me this video was controversial. GLP-1 drugs have the potential to help so many lives, yet our collective fatalism and conspiratorial thinking prevents adoption. I wouldn't normally weigh in on this (no pun intended), but I realize creating this market may suggest I approve of what's just happened. Oh well, hopefully the new video won't compromise on the science for populist brownie points

Is 03-31 the resolution date?

@Elspeth yes, idk why we have this expectation as a community that it's acceptable for resolution dates to move around.

For my markets, if it says 3-31, then it resolves 3-31 unless explicitly overridden with clear language in the description.

@GnosticGirl The title and description don't mention 2026-03-31. If that is part of the resolution criteria then add it to the title and/or description.

@HankyUSA The market resolution date is in the top right corner. For my markets, they are always 100% accurate.

filled a αΉ€10 NO at 10% order

@GnosticGirl That is a scheduled time for the market to close, not resolve. Closing just means trading stops.

@HankyUSA These are the same thing for my markets. We really shouldn't normalize such a distinction. When a market closes, prompt resolution should follow. Anyone making people wait is just tying up capital and frustrating everyone involved.

@GnosticGirl A market can close at any time including long before market resolution is even possible.

@GnosticGirl I applaud your commitment to resolving things and unlocking people's mana quickly. I still think if your market includes an inherent deadline that should be stated in the description or title.

@GnosticGirl I don't think we 'normalize' such a distinction, although it does happen unintentially a lot, but some market makers don't want 'live trading' for markets based on certain events or things, and so the closing time is explicitly different from resolution. E.g. you want a market and its graph to show probabilities for events leading up to but not including it, like the Oscars.

You could put in your profile 'my markets will always have their closing dates and resolution dates match'

and lots of users will see that and remember it, especially as your grow as a more regular and recognized member of the community but still lots of traders won't see it.

'best practice' (don't love this term but you get the idea) imo would be to always include it in market description

Relevant: the video's title has now changed.

  • Original: "Should We Give Ozempic to Everyone?"

  • Current: "The Uncomfortable Truth About Ozempic"

Not quite an apology but they're definitely aware of the backlash.

Comment hidden

I'm assuming what they did for "We Need to Rethink Exercise" would resolve YES? I think they issued a partial apology saying they were working on fixing the video, took down the original, and uploaded a new edited version

@PlasmaPower Yes, this market will resolve YES if they take the original video down for any reason