YES if NYT declares his indictment boosted his black vote share (and it increases)
1,000
3.00@traders Here's my plan for how to handle this:
Gigacasting's markets have been abandoned for a long time and the convention I have used in dealing with them is to read exactly what Gigacasting wrote, and be as faithful to that as possible. If it is impossible to decipher, resolve N/A.
The title is about Trump winning the black vote. If there is evidence that Trump got more than 50% of votes from black voters, I would resolve Yes based on that. (Over 50% among those black people who voted.)
The description says it resolves Yes if the New York Times declares that his indictment (specifically the indictment!) increased his share among black voters. If that happened, I would resolve Yes.
If the NYT did not say that, and if Trump won less than 50% of the black vote, then resolve No.
It looks like we can probably get either a Yes or a No here.
So far, @Yiddishe_Kupp1980 has presented some evidence from CNN that Trump did NOT win 50% of the Black vote. And no one has presented evidence that the NYT claims the indictment boosted black vote share.
It looks like this market will resolve No, but if you have legitimate evidence to the contrary, please share it here. I attempted to search for the NYT claim and found nothing yet. I also attempted to look up the vote share among black voters, and I did not see anything indicating Trump won over 50% of the vote.
I'll wait a day or two in case there is something else, but this looks like it will resolve No.
@mods CNN exit polling showed Trump winning 13% of Black Voters. Harris had 85%.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls
@Yiddishe_Kupp1980 The market description says it can resolve Yes if the New York Times days he got more black votes than last time. It doesn't mention CNN.
@apetresc Kinda suggests that being indicted is more of a Black thing? But keeping in mind that his voters will probably think he's innocent it might make sense