This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.
They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
in general election, NO if not nominated, significantly is >25% (not points)
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Edison Research that is quoted a lot seems to indicate no change:
CNN has 13% in 2024 vs 12% in 2020.
NYT so far seems to only have published some assorted whining.
Why is the market where it is?
@CodeandSolder Greater than 25% seems extremely unlikely given estimates we’ve seen from reputable sources
@CodeandSolder there aren't really "official" statistics on this. Just different news organizations making extrapolations from their exit polls.
Would be good to define beforehand which news org you will use as source of truth. I'd suggest using NYT