Will Donald Trump get more than 30% of the Jewish vote in the 2024 elections, which would be a high watermark since H.W. Bush got 35% in 1988.

Note: if there is no singular polling of the Jewish vote (as was the case in 2020), this market will use the Pew Research’s value for Resolution.

Recent Jewish Republican vote totals:

• 2020 [Trump]: 30%

• 2016 [Trump]: 24%

• 2012 [Romney]: 30%

• 2008 [McCain]: 22%

• 2004 [Bush]: 24%

• 2000 [Bush]: 19%

See a related market from @DanMan314 with a much higher bar: