Will Bitcoin reach $10k before it reaches $100k? | Manifold

Will Bitcoin reach $10k before it reaches $100k?

Plus

112

Ṁ38k

2050

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves based on majority of any 24-hour trading window below $10k or above $100k

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I don't know if this is efficient, but it looks nice

predicts YES

Buying more cheap YES

predicts YES

Surprised to see no movement after FTX

predicts YES

I almost got wrecked by confusing the YES and NO sides of this market.

If it were an unbiased Black-Scholes walk it would be about 72%.

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