Resolution criteria
This market resolves based on when Bitcoin first trades at or above $100,000 USD after the creation of this market.
Each option represents a cumulative time threshold.
If Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before a given date, that option resolves YES.
For example:
If Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in June 2026, then
Before July 2026, Before October 2026, and Before January 2027 resolve YES.
Earlier options whose deadlines have already passed resolve NO.
Price data will be verified using publicly available data from major exchanges or aggregators such as CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Coinbase, Kraken, or Binance.
Brief spikes count. If Bitcoin touches $100,000 even momentarily on a major exchange, it is considered to have reached the threshold.
If Bitcoin does not reach $100,000 before January 1, 2027, then all options resolve NO.
Background
Bitcoin crossed the $100,000 barrier for the first time in December 2024, a historic milestone that placed a global spotlight on Bitcoin's growing appeal and its increasing acceptance as a legitimate asset. Bitcoin's price continued to fluctuate above and below the $100,000 threshold throughout 2025, with a rare dip to $98,000 on June 22, 2025 due to geopolitical tensions, before recovering to $103,127.30 the next day. As of March 12, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $70,523 per unit.
Considerations
Bitcoin has demonstrated extreme volatility historically. By the end of 2025, it was trading about 30% below its record high from October of the same year. US-Iran geopolitical escalation in late February 2026 sent crude oil above $110/bbl, triggering a broad risk-off cascade across equities and crypto, with rate cut expectations pushed back. Analyst price targets for 2026 vary widely, ranging from $65,000 to $178,000, reflecting significant uncertainty about near-term direction.
This description was generated by AI.
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@LilHasty description doesn't match? please edit to avoid confusion, thanks.
@LilHasty "and all other options will resolve NO." this part should not apply, as multiple options can resolve YES, e.g. if it's before June, then it's also before July and all subsequent time windows.
"If Bitcoin does not reach $100,000 before January 1, 2027, the option “Before January 2027” resolves YES." should be all resolve NO including Jan 2027?
@LilHasty looks good now, thanks! one last bit, do you have a specific source for price you prefer, and a timezone for the monthly thresholds?
edit: i see you listed several sources, so i take it if it happens on any of those it counts.